Modelling climate change impacts on agricultural systems

Climate change is a key threat to agriculture. Modelling is fundamental to assessing its potential impacts. This collection summarises the wealth of research on improving climate impact models and their use in assessing impacts on different regions.

Modelling climate change impacts on agricultural systems reviews research on developing models in areas such as improving data flows, incorporating genetic information and dealing with uncertainty. This collection also reviews what we know about potential climate change impacts on regional agricultural systems such as, Europe, North America, Latin America, Australia and Oceania, as well as different regions in Asia and Africa.

Part 1 Advances in modelling

• 1.Advances in integrating different models assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture: Jacques-Eric Bergez, Julie Constantin, Philippe Debaeke, Hélène Raynal and Sophie Plassin, INRAE, France; Magali Willaume, Toulouse INP-ENSAT, France; and Raphael Martin, INRAE, France;
• 2.Improving data flow and integration in models assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture: Claas Nendel, Roland Baatz, Michael Berg-Mohnicke and Gohar Ghazaryan, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Germany; Sander Janssen, Wageningen Environmental Research, The Netherlands; Pierre Martre, INRAE, France; and Cheryl Porter, University of Florida, USA;
• 3.Incorporating genetics into crop models to identify new phenotypes adapted to climate change: Carlos D. Messina, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences (IFAS), University of Florida, USA and The ARC Centre of Excellence for Plant Success in Nature and Agriculture, Australia; and Mark Cooper, The Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation (QAAFI) and The ARC Centre of Excellence for Plant Success in Nature and Agriculture, Australia;
• 4.Developing more integrated approaches in models assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture: Ian P. Holman, Cranfield University, UK and Global Change Research Centre, Czech Republic; and Paula A. Harrison, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, UK and Global Change Research Centre, Czech Republic;
• 5.Accounting for uncertainties in modeling the impact of climate change on agriculture: Fulu Tao, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China and Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Finland; Taru Palosuo, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Finland; and Reimund Paul Rötter, Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS) and University of Göttingen, Germany;

Part 2 Modelling climate change impacts on particular aspects of agricultural systems

• 6.Modeling climate change impacts on crop growth and yield formation: Davide Cammarano and Johannes Wilhelmus Maria Pullens, Aarhus University, Denmark; and Pierre Martre, Université de Montpellier, France;
• 7.Modelling climate change impacts on livestock production: Ryan G. McGuire, Shannon M. McLaughlin, Tanisha L. Waring, Kayley D. Barnes, Sharon A. Huws and Nigel. D. Scollan, Queen’s University Belfast, UK;
• 8.Modeling climate change impact on low-input smallholder farming systems: Myriam Adam, Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement (CIRAD), UMR AGAP Institute, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Institut Agro, Montpellier, France and National University of Battambang, Cambodia; Gatien Falconnier, CIRAD, UPR AIDA, F-34398 Montpellier and AIDA, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, Montpellier, France and International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), Zimbabwe; David Berre, CIRAD, UPR AIDA, F-34398 Montpellier and AIDA, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, Montpellier, France; Katrien Descheemaeker, Wageningen University & Research, The Netherlands; Juliette Lairez, CIRAD, UPR AIDA, F-34398 Montpellier and AIDA, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, Montpellier, France and Institut de l’Environnement et de Recherche Agricole (INERA), Burkina Faso; and Louise Leroux, CIRAD, UPR AIDA, F-34398 Montpellier and AIDA, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, Montpellier, France, CIRAD, UPR AIDA, Nairobi and IITA, Kenya;
• 9.Modeling climate change impact on agro-ecosystem services: Charlotte Weil, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland; Justin A. Johnson, University of Minnesota, USA; and Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, University of Minnesota and SPRING, USA;
• 10.Modelling climate change impacts on agricultural commodity markets: Ignacio Pérez Domínguez, Jordan Hristov, Christian Elleby and Thomas Fellmann, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Spain; Andrea Toreti, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy; Thomas Chatzopoulos and Ana Luisa Barbosa, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Spain; and Frank Dentener, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy;
• 11.Modelling transition of agricultural systems in response to climate change: Arnout van Soesbergen and Fiona Jones, King’s College London, UK;

Part 3 Modelling climate change impacts on regional agricultural systems

• 12.Modelling the impact of climate change on agriculture in Europe: Mirek Trnka and Rudolf Brázdil, Global Change Research Institute CAS, Czech Republic; Lorenzo Brilli, Institute for BioEconomy (IBE) – National Research Council (CNR), Italy; Hannah C. von Czettritz und Neuhaus, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Germany; Sergi Costafreda-Aumedes, Institute for BioEconomy (IBE) – National Research Council (CNR), Italy; Petr Dobrovolný, Petr Holub and Karel Klem, Global Change Research Institute CAS, Czech Republic; Matthias Kuhnert, University of Aberdeen, UK; Luisa Leolini, University of Florence, Italy; Marco Moriondo, Institute for BioEconomy (IBE) – National Research Council (CNR), Italy; Nina Muntean, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Czech Republic; Jørgen Eivind Olesen, Aarhus University, Denmark; Markéta Poděbradská, Vera Potopová, Petr Štěpánek and Otmar Urban, Global Change Research Institute CAS, Czech Republic; and Peter Zander and Claas Nendel, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Germany;
• 13.Modeling the impact of climate change on agriculture in the United States: Bruno Basso, Neville Millar and Lydia Price, Michigan State University, USA;
• 14.Modeling the impact of climate change on agriculture in Latin America: Fábio R. Marin and Ivo Zution Gonçalves, University of São Paulo, Brazil; Francisco J Meza, Forestal. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Chile; Néstor M. Riaño H., Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Colombia; Andrés J. Peña Q, Colombian Corporation for Agricultural Research (AGROSAVIA), Colombia; Alexandre B. Heinneman, EMBRAPA, Brazil; Nereu A. Streck and Alencar Jr Zanon, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Brazil; Murilo S. Vianna, University of Bonn, Germany; and Evandro H. F. Silva and Nilson A. Vieira Jr, University of São Paulo, Brazil;
• 15.Modelling the impact of climate change on agriculture in Australia and Oceania: Enli Wang, CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Australia; Edmar Teixeira, The New Zealand Institute for Plant & Food Research Limited, New Zealand; Bangyou Zheng, CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Australia; Neal Hughes, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), Australia; Karine Chenu, The University of Queensland, Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation (QAAFI), Australia; James Hunt, University of Melbourne, Australia; Afshin Ghahramani, University of Southern Queensland, Australia; Andries B. Potgieter, The University of Queensland, Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation (QAAFI), Australia; Junqi Zhu and Rogerio Cichota, The New Zealand Institute for Plant & Food Research Limited, New Zealand; and Neil Huth, CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Australia;
• 16.Modelling the impact of climate change on agriculture in South Asia: S. Naresh Kumar, ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute, India;
• 17.Modelling the impact of climate change on agriculture in East Asia: Bing Liu, Zi Ye, Yuan Cao, Bo Liu and Yan Zhu, Nanjing Agricultural University, China;
• 18.Modelling the impact of climate change on agriculture in North Africa and Southwest Asia: Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei , Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Germany; and Sevim Seda Yamaç, Konya Food and Agriculture University, Turkey;
• 19.Modelling the impact of climate change on agriculture in West Africa: D. S. MacCarthy, University of Ghana, Ghana; P. B. I. Akponikpe, Université de Parakou (UP), Benin; F. M. Akinseye, International Crop Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Nigeria and Centre d’Etude Régional pour l’Amélioration de l’Adaptation à la Sécheresse (CERAAS), Sénégal; M. Ly, Cheikh, Anta Diop University, Senegal; E. C. Timpong-Jones, University of Ghana, Ghana; I. Hathie, Initiative Prospective Agricole et Rurale (IPAR), Senegal; and S. G. K. Adiku, University of Ghana, Ghana;