Climate Change: Multidecadal And Beyond

This book focuses on two major challenges in the climate sciences: 1) to describe the decadal-to-centennial variations in instrumental and proxy records; and 2) to distinguish between anthropogenic variations and natural variability. the National Taiwan University invited some of the world's leading experts across the areas of observational analysis, mathematical theory, and modeling to discuss these two issues. the outcome of the meeting is the 23 chapters in this book that review the state of the art in theoretical, observational and modeling research on internal, unforced and externally forced climate variability. The main conclusion of this research is that internal climate variability on decadal and longer time scales is so large that sidestepping it may lead to false estimates of the climate's sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing.

Introduction and Theoretical Approaches: Attribution of Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Variability; Mathematical Theory of Climate Sensitivity; Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem; Parameterization of Cross-Scale Interaction; Dynamics of Nonlinear Error Growth; Adaptive Approach for Nonlinear and Nonstationary Processes; Low-Frequency Oceanic Variability and Atmospheric Impacts: Internal Southern Ocean Centennial Variability; Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; North Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Predictability; Pacific Interdecadal Climate Variability; Global-Scale Decadal Hyper Modes; Observational and Modeling Studies: Recurrent Multidecadal Oscillation in Global Temperature and 21st Century Projections; Sea Ice Variability Over Decadal and Longer Timescales; Multi-Year Prediction and Predictability; Decadal Hydroclimate Variability Across the Americas; Interhemispheric and Long-Term Variations in Tropical Climate Over 20th - 21st Centuries; Climate of China in the Holocene; Tropical Cyclones and Monsoons: North Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Past, Present and Future; Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity on Decadal and Longer Scales; Record-Breaking Increase in Taiwan Typhoon Rainfall Since the Late 20th Century; Multidecadal Variability in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Using Proxy Data; South-Flood North-Drought Pattern Over Eastern China and the Drying of the Gangetic Plain; Impacts of Aerosols on the Asian Monsoon.