Business Cycles in the Contemporary World

The realizationoftheresearch project documented in thisstudy wouldnot have been possible without the kind support and help of several people. I want totaketheopportunitytoexpressmygratitudetothem. Myfirstand foremost thanks go to my thesis supervisor Claude Hillinger. He steadily supported my work with a host of ideas,criticism and encouragement. He has been influential and inspiring in his comments and criticism on alllev elsofdevelopment ofthisdissertation. My sincerethanksare dueto Ulrich Woitek,teachingmefromtheverybeginninginprogrammingandlettingme participate from his expert knowledgeintimeseriesanalysis. UlrichWoitek and Michael Reiter kindly provided me with software and encouraged me throughoutthe whole dissertation project with their comments and in dis cussionsduringtheir staysat Munichand via e-mail. Theyhavehelped me totake many hurdles, particularly in the early stages ofthe project. I am indebted tomyco-supervisor Stephan Klasen forhisengagement andopen minded interest in mythesis. To makethe present work more readable,my friendsin the US,JeanCzerlinskyandRadovanVadovic,madegreat efforts to correct language and style. lowe a great debt of gratitude to them. I alsothankReginaRiphahnandBurkhardHeer fortheir encouragement and helpful guidance. Special thanksgo to Barbara Dluhosch, JakobdeHaan,Burkhard Heer andGerhardIlling. Astheirteachingassistanttheyallgavemetheresources andnecessaryscopeofdevelopmentformydissertationprojectinastimulat ingenvironmentattheEconomics DepartmentoftheUniversity ofMunich. Ithank BeatriceDumpertand BrigitteGebhardfor their maternal motiva tional support and help in administrative matters. Finally, I am indebted to MaximilianFreier for hisreliablesupportand forcross-readingnumerous preliminarydraftsofthethesis. I gratefully acknowledge the Bavarian Young Scientists Grant (Pro motionsstipendium nach dem Gesetz zur Forderung des bayerischen wis senschaftlichen Nachwuchses) for financial support during the first years of my dissertation project. Munich,August 2002 BerndSilssmutli Contents 1. Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1. 1 BusinessCycle Research:21st CenturyPerspective 1 1. 1. 1 TheClassicView. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1. 1. 2 From CBC toRBC School. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Includes supplementary material: sn.pub/extras

1. Introduction.- 1.1 Business Cycle Research: 21st Century Perspective.- 1.2 Recent Empirical Findings in Favor of CBC.- I.Methodology.- 2. General Considerations and Historiography.- 3. The Analysis of Cyclical Dynamics.- II. National, Supra- and International Cycles.- 4. The G7 and Eurol5 Economies: 1960 - 2000.- 5. Mode-Locking and the Global Cycle.- III. The Sectoral Constitution of Macro-Cycles.- 6. An Aggregation Problem for Linear Models?.- 7. The Synchronization of Sectoral Cycles.- 8. A Non-Linear Synchronization Model.- 9. Conclusion.- Abbreviations.- References.