Regional Assessment of Global Change Impacts

This book provides an overview of the GLOWA-Danube research project from 2001 to 2011, a transdisciplinary initiative which explores the future of water resources in the Upper Danube Basin. It documents the purpose and unique approach, architecture, methodologies, scenarios and results of the project, creating a scientific knowledge base for the dialogue of stakeholders and scientists. The book offers a possible blueprint for successful global change science through integrative and transdisciplinary co-creation of knowledge and orientation for regional adaptation within the context of the Future Earth research program.

Possible blueprint for successful, transdisciplinary future Global Change science for society

Part I: Introduction.- 1. GLOWA-Danube.- DANUBIA - 2. A Web-Based Modelling- and Decision Support System to Investigate Global Change and the Hydrological Cycle in the Upper Danube Basin - Informatics Sub-Project.- 3. DeepActor Models in DANUBIA .- 4. Validation of the Hydrological Modelling in DANUBIA.- 5. The Stakeholder Dialogue in the Third Project Phase of GLOWA-Danube.- 6. GLOWA-Danube Results and Key Messages.- Part II: Data.- 7. Digital Terrain.- 8. Soil Textures.- 9. Land Use and Land Cover.- 10. Climate Stations.- Spatial and Temporal Interpolation of the Meteorological Data - Precipitation Temperature and Radiation.- 12. Ice Reservoir.- 13. Trends in Temperature and Precipitation.- 14. Hydrogeology - A Consistent Basin-Wide Representation of the Major Aquifers in the Upper Danube Basin.- 15. Mean Daily Discharge and Discharge Variability.- 16.- Population.- 17. Gross Domestic Product.- 18. Water Demand in Tourism Facilities.- 19. Agriculture.- 20. Extraction of Water for the Public Drinking Water Supply.- 21. Topsoil Organic Carbon Content.- 22. Data on Quantity and Quality Of Groundwater .- Hydropower Plants.- Part III: Models.- 24. Groundwater Recharge.- 25. Runoff Formation.- 26. Groundwater Contour Maps for the Alluvial Aquifers of the Upper Danube Basin.- 27.- Total Extraction and Total Water Supply per Community.- 28. Modelling the Effects of Global Change on Drinking Water Supply - the DeepWaterSupply Decision Model.- 29. Surface Water: Discharges and Water Quality.- 30. Mean Snow Cover Duration.- 31. Future Changes in the Ice Reservoir.- 32. Precipitation and Temperature.- 33. Two-Way Coupling the PROMET and MM5 Models.- 34. Mean Number of Storm Days. 35.- Energy: Simulation of Hydropower Generation and Reservoir Management.- 36. CO2-Fluxes and Transpiration.- 37. Plant Growth and Biomass Production.- 38. Nitrate Leaching.- 39. Agricultural Land Use and Drinking

Water Demand.- 40. Actor Model for Farmers' Crop Management Decisions - the DeepFarming Model.- 41. Water Demand by Private Households and the Public Service Sector.- 42. Modelled Domestic Water Demand 2 - The DeepHousehold Decision Model.- 43. Diffusion of Water-Saving Technologies in Private Households - The Innovation Module of DeepHousehold.- 44. Modelling Risk Perception and Indicators of Psycho-Social Sustainability in Private Households - The Risk Perception Module in DeepHousehold.- 45.Environmental Economy: Industrial Water Abstraction.- 46. Tourism Research: Water Demand by the Tourism Sector.- Part IV: Scenarios.-47. GLOWA-Danube Scenarios.- 48.- The GLOWA-Danube Climate Trends.- 49.- The Statistical Climate Generator.- 50. The GLOWA-Danube Climate Variants from the Statistical Climate Generator.- 51. Climate Variants of the MM5 and REMO Regional Climate Models.- 52.- Social Scenarios in GLOWA Danube.- Part V: Integrative Results.- 53. Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability.- 54. Scenarios for the Development of Low Flow in the Upper Danube Basin.- 55. Scenarios for the Development of Floods in the Upper Danube Basin.- 56. Influence of the Glaciers on Runoff Regime and its Change.- 57. Mean Snow Cover Duration from November to June under the REMO Regional Climate Trend and the Baseline Climate Variant.- 58. Trends in Evapotranspiration in Heterogeneous Landscapes under Scenario Conditions.- 59. Groundwater Recharge under Scenario Conditions.- 60. The Influence of Snow Cover on the Runoff Regime and its Change.- 61. Analysis of Discharge Patterns on the Danube Between Kelheim and Achleiten with a Particular Focus on Navigation.- 62. Effects of Different Scenarios on the Operating Dates of Ski Areas.- 63. Effects of Different Scenarios on Water Consumption by Golf Courses.- 64. Changes to the Quantitative Status of Groundwater and the Water Supply. 65. Societal Scenarios in DeepHousehold.- 66. Scenarios with Economic Perspectives under the Impact of Climate and Social Changes.- 67. Interventions in DeepHousehold.- 68. Effects of Climate Change on Hydropower Generation and Reservoir Management.- Estimating the Change in Groundwater Quality Resulting from Changes to Land Use and Groundwater Recharge.- 69. Effects of Future Climate Changes on Yields, Land Use and Agricultural Incomes.- 70. Scenarios of Top Soil Layer Temperature.- 71. Effects of Climate Change on Nitrate Leaching.- 72. Effects of Agro-Economic Decisions on Nitrate Leaching.- 73.- Climate-related Forest Fire Risk.- 74. Forest Fire Risk under Various Climate Trends.- 75. Effects of Future Climate Trends On Crop Management.