Emerging Markets in a World of Chaos

This book is a journey through leading and incredibly diverse emerging markets in a world of shocks and transitions. Tracing the rise of China, the emergence of India, the changing fortunes in Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico, the unique developments in Turkey and Indonesia, the complex geopolitics in Russia and Saudi Arabia, and the challenging post-apartheid transition in South Africa, the study examines their varying prospects in the years to come.

Using an innovative analytical approach and rich empirics, the book delves into topics ranging from macroeconomics to human development, institutions to climate change. It provides a strategic roadmap of reform for these economies to escape the middle-income trap. It argues that in a world where advanced economies are defined by slowdown, growing trade blocs, changing demographics, and the rise of renewable technologies, emerging markets will continue to play a significant but complex role in the twenty-first century.

1. Introduction.- 2. GEMINI model.- 3. The dramatic rise of China.- 4. The emergence of India.- 5. The Latin American trifecta.- 6. The volatile oil economies.- 7. Other emerging economies.- 8. Growth: different speeds.- 9. Equity: is human developments in emerging markets getting better for most?.- 10. Money: bank, capital markets, and fintech.- 11. Institutions: is governance the weak spot?.- 12. National competitiveness: integration into world economy and productivity.- 12: Infrastructure: what is the future for transport and sustainable energy?.- 13. What can GEMINI teach us about escaping the middle income trap?.