Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis

This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications.After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the "e;random expert"e; hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts' assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies.The second part includes Roger Cooke's oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke.The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys.Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.

This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications.

Chapter 1. Introduction and Overview of Structured Expert Judgement.- Chapter 2. Recent advances in the elicitation of uncertainty distributions from experts for multinomial probabilities.- Chapter 3. Are Performance Weights Beneficial? Investigating the Random Expert Hypothesis.- Chapter 4. Customized Structural Elicitation.- Chapter 5. Bayesian Modelling of Dependence between Experts: some Comparisons with the Cooke Model.- Chapter 6. Three-Point Lifetime Distribution Elicitation for Maintenance Optimization.- Chapter 7. Adversarial Risk Analysis as a Decomposition Method for Structural Expert Judgement Modelling.- Chapter 8. A Number of Things.- Chapter 9. The Classical Model: the Early Years.- Chapter 10. An in-depth perspective on the Classical Model.- Chapter 11. Building on Foundations: an interview with Roger Cooke.- Chapter 12. Scientific advice: a personal perspective in dealing with uncertainty. An interview with Prof Dame Anne Glover.- Chapter 13. Characteristics of a Process for Subjective Probability Elicitation.- Chapter 14. Developing Training Courses for Structured Expert Judgement.- Chapter 15. Expert judgment for geological hazards in New Zealand.- Chapter 16. Using the Classical Model for source attribution of pathogen caused illnesses.- Chapter 17. Reminiscences of a Classical Model expert elicitation facilitator.- Chapter 18. Dealing with imperfect elicitation results.- Chapter 19. Structured Expert Judgement for decisions on medicines policy and management.- Chapter 20. Structured Expert Judgement Issues in a Supply Chain Cyber Risk Management System.- Chapter 21. Structured Expert Judgement in adversarial risk assessment: An application of the Classical Model for assessing geo-political risk in the insurance underwriting industry.- Chapter 22. Expert Judgement in Terrorism Risk Assessment.- Chapter 23. Decision-making in early internationalization: a structured expert judgment approach.