Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

Manu Joseph is a self-made data scientist with more than a decade of experience working with many Fortune 500 companies enabling digital and AI transformations, specifically in machine learning-based demand forecasting. He is considered an expert, thought leader, and strong voice in the world of time series forecasting. Currently, Manu leads applied research at Thoucentric, where he advances research by bringing cutting-edge AI technologies to the industry. He is also an active open-source contributor and developed an open-source library-PyTorch Tabular-which makes deep learning for tabular data easy and accessible. Originally from Thiruvananthapuram, India, Manu currently resides in Bengaluru, India, with his wife and son

Build real-world time series forecasting systems which scale to millions of time series by applying modern machine learning and deep learning conceptsKey FeaturesExplore industry-tested machine learning techniques used to forecast millions of time seriesGet started with the revolutionary paradigm of global forecasting modelsGet to grips with new concepts by applying them to real-world datasets of energy forecastingBook DescriptionWe live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML.This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You'll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you'll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability.By the end of this book, you'll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.What you will learnFind out how to manipulate and visualize time series data like a proSet strong baselines with popular models such as ARIMADiscover how time series forecasting can be cast as regressionEngineer features for machine learning models for forecastingExplore the exciting world of ensembling and stacking modelsGet to grips with the global forecasting paradigmUnderstand and apply state-of-the-art DL models such as N-BEATS and AutoformerExplore multi-step forecasting and cross-validation strategiesWho this book is forThe book is for data scientists, data analysts, machine learning engineers, and Python developers who want to build industry-ready time series models. Since the book explains most concepts from the ground up, basic proficiency in Python is all you need. Prior understanding of machine learning or forecasting will help speed up your learning. For experienced machine learning and forecasting practitioners, this book has a lot to offer in terms of advanced techniques and traversing the latest research frontiers in time series forecasting.Table of ContentsIntroducing Time SeriesAcquiring and Processing Time Series DataAnalyzing and Visualizing Time Series DataSetting a Strong Baseline ForecastTime Series Forecasting as RegressionFeature Engineering for Time Series ForecastingTarget Transformations for Time Series ForecastingForecasting Time Series with Machine Learning ModelsEnsembling and StackingGlobal Forecasting ModelsIntroduction to Deep LearningBuilding Blocks of Deep Learning for Time SeriesCommon Modeling Patterns for Time SeriesAttention and Transformers for Time SeriesStrategies for Global Deep Learning Forecasting Models(N.B. Please use the Look Inside option to see further chapters)