Presidential Swing States

Jacob and Schultz examine in this new and updated volume the phenomena of presidential swing states in the 2016 US presidential election. They explore the reasons why some states and, now counties, seem repeatedly to be the focus of candidate attention and capable of voting for either of the major candidates and being decisive in determining who wins the presidency.

The 2020 US presidential race was one of the most hotly contested and contentious in recent American history. While the election produced the greatest turnout in American history and the highest percentage turnout in 60 years, the election still came down to a handful of swing states that ultimately decided the election. In their third edition of Presidential Swing States, Rafael Jacob and David Schultz examine the 2020 presidential election, keying in on the few critical states that actually decided the election and why. With cases studies written by prominent political scientists who are experts on these swing states, Presidential Swing States also explains why some states were swing states but no longer are, why some continue to be swing states, and what states beyond 2020 may be the future swing states that decide the presidency.

The book contains in-depth case studies of the swing-states and swing-counties that decide presidential elections in the United States. Students in classes on American Politics and Government, Parties, Campaigns and Elections, State Politics, and the Presidency will all be well-served by the analyses in this volume, as will journalists reporting on presidential elections, and the general public.

Introduction by David Schultz and Rafael Jacob

Part I: The “Classic” Swing States

Chapter 1: Florida: Center of Presidential Attention, But for How Long? by Sean D. Foreman

Chapter 2: Battleground Nevada Holds Steady in 2020 by David F. Damore, Elizabeth Maltby, and Rebecca D. Gill

Chapter 3: Set in Granite: New Hampshire as a Presidential Bellwether by Dante J. Scala

Chapter 4: Reliably Purple: The 2020 Presidential Election in North Carolina by Christopher A. Cooper and H. Gibbs Knotts

Chapter 5: Pennsylvania: A Bellwether Like No Other by Christopher Borick and Rafael Jacob

Chapter 6: From Blue to Red and Back Again: The Future of Wisconsin Politics in the Aftermath of the 2020 Presidential Election by Neil Kraus and Aaron C. Weinschenk

Part II: The “On the Bubble” Swing States

Chapter 7: Iowa: Islands in the Stream by Donna R. Hoffman and Christopher W. Larimer

Chapter 8: A State Divided: Maine and Its Continued Electoral Vote Split by James P. Melcher and Amy Fried

Chapter 9: Minnesota: “The One That Got Away” by David Schultz

Chapter 10: Ohio Swings Toward the GOP by Nathaniel Swigger

Chapter 11: Michigan: Joe Biden Wins the Turnout Battle by David A. Dulio and John S. Klemanski

Part III: The “Emerging” Swing States

Chapter 12 Arizona: The Turning Tide of Change by Kate Kenski

Chapter 13 Georgia: The Rebirth of Two-Party Competition in a Growing Deep South State by Karen L. Owen

Chapter 14: Nebraska: District Two Swinging Blue by Kyle Hull

Chapter 15: Politics Now is All about the Purple Battlegrounds by Scott McLean