Facing China

Under Xi Jinping, China has embarked into more aggressive gray zone tactics and operations, especially in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. While this new assertiveness has intensified the likelihood of military crises, especially with the United States, Xi has been keen to remain under the threshold of war. Can this strategy succeed?

Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a China specialist based in Hong Kong, provides an overview of “Thucydides’ Trap,” as coined by political scientist Graham Allison to describe the inescapable conflict between Beijing and Washington. Is China’s growing power a threat to the United States? Could it lead to war between the two nations?

Economically and militarily stronger, and more nationalist than ever, the People’s Republic of China is increasingly tempted to use force to assert its power, especially in its immediate region. First, the author considers the factors around the threat of war, specifically on the Chinese side, then presents the three most likely armed conflict scenarios: around Taiwan; in the South China Sea; or in the Senkaku Islands under Japanese control. Cabestan also analyses the tensions between China and India along their common borders, which were revived in 2020.

But the most likely scenario, according to Cabestan, would be a rapid, piecemeal attack, aimed at tearing borders apart or defending vested interests – not to mention increased cyber warfare. It could also manifest itself as the emergence of a new type of cold war, punctuated by crises bordering on either a nuclear strike or the use of new weapons. U.S.-Chinese tensions and the many potential fronts on which they could elevate are a conflict-in-waiting which will weigh on the 21st century and dominate international life as China seeks to become entrenched as a dominant world power.

Introduction: The Thucydides Trap Revisited

1 An Accumulation of Passions and Ammunition

China

The United States

China’s Main Neighbors: Japan, India, Australia

Conclusion

2 War Risks Debate in China

China’s Official Position: Xi Intends Avoiding War

Debates Among Chinese Experts

Conclusion

3 Is a Sino-US War over Taiwan Likely?

Evolution in Chinese Reunification Strategy and US Engagements

The PLA’s Specific Preparations for War against Taiwan

Evolution of Debates in China over an Anti-Taiwan War

Evolution of US Debates over an Anti-Taiwan War

Evolution of Debates and Defense Policy in Taiwan

Gray Zones: Non-Military Ways of Subjugating Taiwan

Conclusion: The Impact of the Ukraine War and Its Limits

4 War Risks in the South China Sea

Various Parties’ Claims and Controls

Proliferating Sino-US Conflicts

Conclusion

5 War Risks over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands

Chinese and Japanese Stands on the Dispute

Chinese Actions Aimed at Undermining Japanese Sovereignty over the Senkaku

Hardening of Japanese and US Stands and the 2014 Agreement

Crisis Management Mechanisms and Their Limitations

Enhanced Senkaku Militarization

Clarifications and Incertitudes

Conclusion

6 Border Tensions and Risks of a China-India War

Recent Rise in Border Tensions

Risks of Sino-Indian War

Conclusion

7 Which Armed Conflicts Might China Engage In?

Warning Signs

Strengthening PLA Projection Capabilities and Future MOA Scenarios

Conclusion

Conclusion: War or Peace Tomorrow?

War Will Likely Not Erupt Tomorrow

Risks or Armed Incidents and Military Crises

Sino-US Struggle for World Leadership: How Will It End?

Towards a New Kind of Cold War and Its Consequences for the Western Pacific

The Role of the US and Its Allies

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