Preventive Measures
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Preventive Measures

Building Risk Assessment and Crisis Early Warning Systems
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John L. Davies
eBook Typ:
Adobe Digital Editions
Adobe DRM [Hard-DRM]

State failure, ethnopolitical war, genocide, famine, and refugee flows are variants of a type of complex political and humanitarian crisis, exemplified during the 1990s in places like Somalia, Bosnia, Liberia, and Afghanistan. The international consequences of such crises are profound, often threatening regional security and requiring major inputs of humanitarian assistance. They also may pose long-term and costly challenges of rebuilding shattered governments and societies. A vital policy question is whether failures can be diagnosed far enough in advance to facilitate effective international efforts at prevention or peaceful transformation. This volume of original essays examines crisis early warning factors at different levels, in different settings, and judges their effectiveness according to various models. Top contributors offer answers along with analyses as they move from early warning to early response in their policy recommendations.
Chapter 1 Preventive Measures: An Overview
Part 2 Part I: Structural Indicators and Risk Assessment Models

Chapter 3 A Risk Assessment Model of Ethnopolitical Rebellion

Chapter 4 The State Failure Project: Early Warning Research for U.S. Foreign Policy Planning

Chapter 5 Indicator Development: Issues in Forecasting Conflict Escalation

Chapter 6 Early Warning Indicators of Forced Migration

Part 7 Part II: Dynamic Indicators and Early Warning Models

Chapter 8 Early Warning of Humanitarian Crises: Sequential Models and the Role of Accelerators

Chapter 9 Dynamic Data for Conflict Early Warning

Chapter 10 Cluster Analysis as an Early Warning Technique for the Middle East

Chapter 11 Timely Conflict Risk Assessments and the PANDA Project

Chapter 12 A Pattern Recognition Approach to Conflict Early Warning

Part 13 Part III. Specialized Models and Applications

Chapter 14 Early Warning of Environmentally Caused Conflicts

Chapter 15 An Expert System for Assessing Vulnerability to Instability

Chapter 16 The FUGI Model as a Global Early Warning System for Refugees

Chapter 17 Human Rights Abuses and Arms Trafficking in Central Africa

Chapter 18 FAST: A Pilot Study for an Early Warning System for the Swiss Foreign Ministry

Part 19 Part IV: Public Sector Information and Early Warning Systems

Chapter 20 The Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture

Chapter 21 USAID's Famine Early Warning System

Chapter 22 The Humanitarian Early Warning System: From Concept to Practice

Chapter 23 ReliefWeb: An International Information Management Tool

Chapter 24 The Role of Early Warning in the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees

Part 25 Part V. From Early Warning to Early Response

Chapter 26 Towards Response-Oriented Early Warning Analysis

Chapter 27 Information Sharing and Early Warning

Chapter 28 Early Warning: An Action Agenda