Opportunities Missed, Opportunities Seized

This study examines ten major post-Cold War cases—including Croatia-Bosnia, Rwanda, the Baltics, Russia-Ukraine, Macedonia, and North Korea—to assess the key factors contributing to both the success and failure of preventive diplomacy. The method of case study analysis employed is based on the work of Alexander L. George. Authors include both leading academics and prominent policy officials with first-hand knowledge.

The basic logic of preventive diplomacy is unassailable. Act early to prevent disputes from escalating; reduce tensions that could lead to war; deal with today's conflicts before they become tomorrow's crises. Yet as we look at the record of these first years of the post-Cold War era, it is quite mixed. There have been some preventive diplomacy successes and opportunities that have been seized by major powers and international organizations to help preserve and protect the peace. But there also have been other opportunities that have been missed, with some of the century's most deadly conflicts the result. This study examines ten major post-Cold War cases including Croatia-Bosnia, Rwanda, the Baltics, Russia-Ukraine, Macedonia, and North Korea_to assess the key factors contributing to both the success and failure of preventive diplomacy. The method of case study analysis employed is based on the work of Alexander L. George. Authors include both leading academics and prominent policy officials with first-hand knowledge.

Part 1 Overview
Chapter 2 Preventive Diplomacy: A Conceptual and Analytic Framework
Chapter 3 The Warning-Response Problem and Missed Opportunities in Preventive Diplomacy
Part 4 The Dissolution of the Soviet Union
Chapter 5 The War in Chechnya: Opportunities Missed, Lessons to Be Learned
Chapter 6 The International Community and the Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh
Chapter 7 Preventive Diplomacy: Success in the Baltics
Chapter 8 Preventive Diplomacy for Nuclear Nonproliferation in the Former Soviet Union
Part 9 The Breakup of Yugoslavia
Chapter 10 Costly Disinterest: Missed Opportunities for Preventive Diplomacy in Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, 1985-1991
Chapter 11 Preventive Diplomacy for Macedonia, 1992-1998: From Containment to Nation Building
Part 12 Ethnic Conflict in Africa
Chapter 13 Somalia: Misread Crises and Missed Opportunities
Chapter 14 Preventive Diplomacy in Rwanda: Failure to Act or Failure of Actions?
Chapter 15 Prevention Gained and Prevention Lost: Collapse, Competition, and Coup in Congo
Part 16 Rogue State Aggression
Chapter 17 Opportunity Seized: Preventive Diplomacy in Korea
Part 18 Conclusions
Chapter 19 Preventive Diplomacy: Analytic Conclusions and Policy Lessons