Crisis, Stabilization and Growth

The break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991, following closely on the adoptionofmarket-orientedreformsinEastern Europe, createdanew specialty within economics. The economicsoftransitionencompassesphenomenaand problems fromboth microeconomicsandmacroeconomics, aseconomistsfrom all disciplines have labored to understand the economic forces at work in the movement fromplanning tomarket in these countries. Muchhas been learned in the subsequent decade, but as the poor macroeconomic record of the economies attests, much remains to be done. In my view, our progress in understanding transition has been much more pronounced on the microeconomic questions - enterprise privatization, price liberalization, and more competitive industrial organization- than it has been on the more macroeconomic issues. I find that it is revealing to consider the latter issues through the optic ofthe saving decisions within the transition economies. This volume is designed to shed light on the difficulties in achievingdesirable macroeconomic performance in an economysaddled with the legacies ofthe Soviet Union. There are three groupsofpotentialreaders for abookon theeconomics of the transition economies, and I believe that this volume has something to offer each. Non-specialists with an interest inlearningmore about the economic development ofthese countries will find a wealth ofdescriptive information about these economies. Economic specialists and policy analysts ofthe region will find the saving-driven analysis ofthe data to be an illuminating optic on the evolution ofthe financial sector, output and inflation in these countries. Academics and scientific researchers will find that the analysis is buttressed with arigoroftheoretical and econometric technique referenced or reported in the text.

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List of Figures. List of Tables. List of Symbols. List of Country Acronyms. Foreword and Acknowledgements. I. The Transition Economies. II. Saving, by Plan and in the Market. III. Considering the Competing Explanations of Transition in Inflation and Economic Growth. IV. The Inflationary Explosion Following Price Liberalization. V. The Crisis Years. VI. Directed Credits and Financial Repression in Belarus. VII. Stabilization in Transition Economies. VIII. Ukraine in the Stabilization Phase. IX. Georgia: from Crisis to Stabilization .. and Then? X. The Fallout of the Russian Financial Crisis for the Transition Economies. XI. Conclusions - and Policy Advice. Bibliography. Indices.