Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence

Katherine Hibbs Pherson , President of Globalytica, LLC, consults with government and private industry on building strong analytic communities, the use of structured analytic techniques, and security issues. She teaches certificate courses on structured thinking and presentation for the security association ASIS International and in the Intelligence Masters program at Universidad Rey Juan Carlos in Madrid, Spain. As Vice Chair of the Intelligence and National Security Association (INSA)'s Security Policy Reform Council, she was primary drafter of its white paper titled "Next Steps for Security Reform: Industry Proposals to Enhance Efficiency and Reduce Costs in National Security Contracts," which has generated a series of productive exchanges among government and industry.

Ms. Pherson is also Chief Executive Officer of Pherson Associates, LLC, and a founding Director of the Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence, a nonprofit established in 2011 to promote the effective use of critical thinking skills and structured analytic techniques by teaching, certifying, and applying these skills in universities in the United States and Europe. She retired from the Central Intelligence Agency in 2000 after a twenty-seven-year career in intelligence and security analysis and resource management. Her leadership in the security arena led to the adoption of a risk management methodology, the strengthening of overseas security countermeasures, and improvements in dealing with unsolicited contacts. As head of the Director of Central Intelligence's Center for Security Evaluation, she managed the Intelligence Community's involvement in rebuilding the penetrated US Embassy in Moscow. She is a recipient of the CIA's Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal
and the Intelligence Community's National Distinguished Service Medal. She received her AB from Vassar College, an MA in Spanish
linguistics and Latin American studies from the University of Illinois, and an MA in
Randolph H. Pherson , Chief Executive Officer of Globalytica, LLC, helps businesses and governments develop robust analytic capabilities within their organizations. He has authored seven books on structured analytic techniques, critical thinking and writing skills, strategic foresight analysis, and communicating analysis in the digital age. He collaborated with Richards J. Heuer Jr. in launching the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) method, and they are coauthors of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, 2nd ed., 2015. Mr. Pherson has taught courses at the London School of Economics, Liverpool Hope University, England; the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin; Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Madrid; and the Autonomous University of Barcelona. He developed and holds the patent for a suite of collaborative Web-based software tools, TH!NK Suite®.

Mr. Pherson is also President of Pherson Associates, LLC and a founding Director of the Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence. In 2000, he completed a twenty-eight-year career in the Intelligence Community, most recently serving as National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for Latin America. Previously at the CIA, Mr. Pherson managed the production of intelligence analysis on topics ranging from global instability to Latin America, served on the Inspector General's staff, and developed and implemented a strategic planning process for the CIA. He is the recipient of the CIA's Distinguished Intelligence Medal for his service as NIO for Latin America and the Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal. Mr. Pherson received his AB from Dartmouth College and his MA in International Relations from Yale University.

Accomplished instructors and intelligence practitioners Beebe and Pherson have created a set of twelve robust, class-tested cases on events in foreign intelligence, counterintelligence, terrorism, homeland security, law enforcement, and decision-making support. The case studies are designed to give analysts-intraining a hands-on opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques to tackle real-life problems. Each case delivers a compelling narrative and a set of step-by-step instructions that make teaching and learning as effective and efficient as possible.

Key Features:

- Questions at the start of each case challenge the student to think critically and help the students bring the case into focus;

- Carefully crafted narratives provide the right amount of detail to give a realistic sense of the complexity and challenges of the case;

- Recommended readings at the end of each narrative allow room for further research

- Sections entitled "Structured Analytic Techniques in Action" frame the analytic tasks and provide step-by-step instructions for applying three to fi ve analytic techniques in a series of exercises for each case study;

- Two hundred photos, maps, figures, tables, boxes, and technique templates support analysis and instruction; and

- A matrix of the cases and techniques used in each cases augment the annotated table of contents and provide students and instructors an all-in-one view of the contents.

A straightforward, easy-to-use resource based on the core principles of critical thinking in intelligence analysis

Introduction
I. HOW DO I GET STARTED?
1. Who Are the Customers?
2. What Are the Key Questions?
3. What Is the Broader Context For Analysis?
4. How Should I Conceptualize My Product?
5. What Is My Analytic Approach?
6. Can Collaboration Contribute To a Better Answer?
II. WHERE IS THE INFORMATION I NEED?
7. How Do Models Help My Analysis?
8. What Types Of Information Are Available?
9. Can I Trust My Sources?
10. How Should I Evaluate Sources On the Internet?
III. WHAT IS MY ARGUMENT?
11. Are My Key Assumptions Well-Founded?
12. Can I Make My Case?
13. Did I Consider Alternative Hypotheses?
14. How Do I Deal With Politicization?
15. How Might I Be Spectacularly Wrong?
11. Are My Key Assumptions Well-Founded?
12. Can I Make My Case?
13. Did I Consider Alternative Hypotheses?
14. How Do I Deal With Politicization?
15. How Might I Be Spectacularly Wrong?
IV. HOW DO I CONVEY MY MESSAGE EFFECTIVELY?
16. Is My Argument Persuasive?
17. How Should I Portray Probability and Levels Of Confidence?
18. How Can Graphics Support My Analysis?
19. How Do I Present My Message In the Most Compelling Way?
20. How Do I Know When I Am Done?
V. CASE STUDIES
21. Countering the Iranian Nuclear Threat: Stuxnet and its Broader Implications
22. Puzzling Food Poisonings in Germany
23. The End of the Era of Aircraft Carriers
24. Financial Crisis in the United States: Chronic or Avoidable?
25. Yemen: The Next Afghanistan?