Environmental Challenges in the Mediterranean 2000¿2050

Antonio Marquina (Spain): Ph.D., Chair for International Security and Cooperation and Professor of international relations at Complutense University in Madrid (CUM) since 1985, founder and director of the Research Unit on Security and Cooperation (UNISCI) at CUM. He has been the director of 14 research projects on European, Mediterranean, North African and Caucasus security and on Spanish foreign and security policy. Since 2002 he is a member of the French Conseil Economique de la Défense. From 1996 to 1997 he was the first president of STRADEMED, a network of research institutes working on security, defence and development issues in the Mediterranean. .

This book collects most of the contributions prepared for the NATO Advanced Research Workshop (ARW) on Environmental Challenges in the Mediterranean 2000-2050. The ARW took place in Madrid from 2 to 5ofOctober 2002. Scholars and researchers from North and South ofthe Mediterranean and other countries from NATO gathered in Madrid for discussing several important factors that could affect Mediterranean security in the next 50 years. In this regard the first chapter presents the different debates regarding environmental security that took place in the last decade. This chapter is an introductory chapter and takes into account the possible audience in the Southern Mediterranean and the wishes ofsome contributors. For this reason the chapter deals in extenso with the question ofhuman security and the different approaches. The ARW dealt with issues that may affect the supply of fundamental goods for human living. To this end the complex question ofclimate change, its impact in the Mediterranean, the predicted increase in temperatures and predictions about rainfall are analysed. As part of this approach a chapter about solar variability and climate change is also added.

Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop, held in Madrid, Spain, 2-5 October 2002

Foreword.- Section I Environment Security.- Environmental Security and Human Security.- Section II Climate Change, Scenarios and Modelling.- Solar Variability and Climate Change.- Qualitative-quantitative scenarios as a means to support sustainability-oriented regional planning.- Climate change and the occurrence of extremes: some implications for the Mediterranean Basin.- Regional IPCC Projections until 2100 in the Mediterranean Area.- Section III Desertification Impacts.- Desertification in the Maghreb: A Case Study of an Algerian High-Plain Steppe.- Prospects for Desertification Impacts for Egypt and Libya.- Prospective Desertification Trends In The Negev - Implications For Urban And Regional Development.- The Prospects of the Impact of Desertification on Turkey, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.- Prospects for desertification impacts in Southern Europe.- Section IV Water Availability.- From Water Scarcity to Water Security in the Maghreb Region: The Moroccan Case.- Water Scarcity Prospects in Egypt 2000 - 2050.- Water worries in Jordan and Israel: What may the future hold?.- In the long term, will there be water shortage in Mediterranean Europe?.- Section V population Growth.- Implications of Population Decline for the European Union (2000-2050).- Population Growth in The Euro-Mediterranean Region.- Section VI Food Prospects.- Food Trade of the Mediterranean Countries in a World Context: Prospects to 2030.- Food Security Prospects in the Maghreb.- EU Agriculture and Common Agricultural Policy: Prospects for the 21st Century and Implications for Mediterranean Countries.- Section VII Urbanisation.- Urban Change in Cairo.- Implications of Urbanization for Turkey. The Case of Istanbul.- Section VIII Pollution.- The Pollution of the Mediterranean: Present State andProspects.- Editor.