Democracy for Realists

Democracy for Realists assails the romantic folk-theory at the heart of contemporary thinking about democratic politics and government, and offers a provocative alternative view grounded in the actual human nature of democratic citizens.Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels deploy a wealth of social-scientific evidence, including ingenious original analyses of topics ranging from abortion politics and budget deficits to the Great Depression and shark attacks, to show that the familiar ideal of thoughtful citizens steering the ship of state from the voting booth is fundamentally misguided. They demonstrate that voterseven those who are well informed and politically engagedmostly choose parties and candidates on the basis of social identities and partisan loyalties, not political issues. They also show that voters adjust their policy views and even their perceptions of basic matters of fact to match those loyalties. When parties are roughly evenly matched, elections often turn on irrelevant or misleading considerations such as economic spurts or downturns beyond the incumbents' control; the outcomes are essentially random. Thus, voters do not control the course of public policy, even indirectly.Achen and Bartels argue that democratic theory needs to be founded on identity groups and political parties, not on the preferences of individual voters. Democracy for Realists provides a powerful challenge to conventional thinking, pointing the way toward a fundamentally different understanding of the realities and potential of democratic government.

Democracy for Realists assails the romantic folk-theory at the heart of contemporary thinking about democratic politics and government, and offers a provocative alternative view grounded in the actual human nature of democratic citizens.Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels deploy a wealth of social-scientific evidence, including ingenious original analyses of topics ranging from abortion politics and budget deficits to the Great Depression and shark attacks, to show that the familiar ideal of thoughtful citizens steering the ship of state from the voting booth is fundamentally misguided. They demonstrate that voters—even those who are well informed and politically engaged—mostly choose parties and candidates on the basis of social identities and partisan loyalties, not political issues. They also show that voters adjust their policy views and even their perceptions of basic matters of fact to match those loyalties. When parties are roughly evenly matched, elections often turn on irrelevant or misleading considerations such as economic spurts or downturns beyond the incumbents' control; the outcomes are essentially random. Thus, voters do not control the course of public policy, even indirectly.Achen and Bartels argue that democratic theory needs to be founded on identity groups and political parties, not on the preferences of individual voters. Democracy for Realists provides a powerful challenge to conventional thinking, pointing the way toward a fundamentally different understanding of the realities and potential of democratic government.

List of Illustrations ixPreface xiii1 Democratic Ideals and Realities 12 The Elusive Mandate: Elections and the Mirage of Popular Control 213 Tumbling Down into a Democratical Republick: âPure Democracyâ and the Pitfalls of Popular Control 524 A Rational God of Vengeance and of Reward? The Logic of Retrospective Accountability 905 Blind Retrospection: Electoral Responses to Droughts, Floods, and Shark Attacks 1166 Musical Chairs: Economic Voting and the Specious Present 1467 A Chicken in Every Pot: Ideology and Retrospection in the Great Depression 1778 The Very Basis of Reasons: Groups, Social Identities, and Political Psychology 2139 Partisan Hearts and Spleens: Social Identities and Political Change 23210 It Feels Like Weâre Th inking: Th e Rationalizing Voter 26711 Groups and Power: Toward a Realist Th eory of Democracy 297Appendix Retrospective Voting as Selection and Sanctioning 329References 335Index 371