The Gray Rhino

Michele Wucker

The #1 English-language bestseller in China--the book that is shaping China's planning and policy for the future.A "gray rhino" is a highly probable, high impact yet neglected threat: kin to both the elephant in the room and the improbable and unforeseeable black swan. Gray rhinos are not random surprises, but occur after a series of warnings and visible evidence. The bursting of the housing bubble in 2008, the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and other natural disasters, the new digital technologies that upended the media world, the fall of the Soviet Union...all were evident well in advance.Why do leaders and decision makers keep failing to address obvious dangers before they spiral out of control? Drawing on her extensive background in policy formation and crisis management, as well as in-depth interviews with leaders from around the world, Michele Wucker shows in The Gray Rhino how to recognize and strategically counter looming high impact threats. Filled with persuasive stories, real-world examples, and practical advice, The Gray Rhino is essential reading for managers, investors, planners, policy makers, and anyone who wants to understand how to profit by avoiding getting trampled.

Preface1. Meet the Gray Rhino2. The Problem with Predictions: Unleashing Denial3. Denial: Why We Miss Seeing Rhinos and Don't Get Out of Their Way4. Muddling: Why We Don't Act Even When We See the Rhino5. Diagnosing: Right and Wrong Solutions6. Panic: Decision-Making Facing a Charging Rhino7. Action: The "Aha" Moment8. After the Trampling: A Crisis Is a Terrible Thing to Waste9. Rhinos on the Horizon: Thinking Long-Term10. Conclusion: How to Keep from Getting Run Over by a RhinoAcknowledgmentsEnd NotesBibliographyIndex