Theory of Probability

First issued in translation as a two-volume work in 1975, this classic book provides the first complete development of the theory of probability from a subjectivist viewpoint. It proceeds from a detailed discussion of the philosophical mathematical aspects to a detailed mathematical treatment of probability and statistics. De Finetti's theory of probability is one of the foundations of Bayesian theory. De Finetti stated that probability is nothing but a subjective analysis of the likelihood that something will happen and that that probability does not exist outside the mind. It is the rate at which a person is willing to bet on something happening. This view is directly opposed to the classicist/ frequentist view of the likelihood of a particular outcome of an event, which assumes that the same event could be identically repeated many times over, and the 'probability' of a particular outcome has to do with the fraction of the time that outcome results from the repeated trials.

First issued in translation as a two-volume work in 1975, this classic book provides the first complete development of the theory of probability from a subjectivist viewpoint. It proceeds from a detailed discussion of the philosophical mathematical aspects to a detailed mathematical treatment of probability and statistics.De Finetti's theory of probability is one of the foundations of Bayesian theory. De Finetti stated that probability is nothing but a subjective analysis of the likelihood that something will happen and that that probability does not exist outside the mind. It is the rate at which a person is willing to bet on something happening. This view is directly opposed to the classicist/ frequentist view of the likelihood of a particular outcome of an event, which assumes that the same event could be identically repeated many times over, and the 'probability' of a particular outcome has to do with the fraction of the time that outcome results from the repeated trials.

Foreword ixPreface xiii1 Introduction 12 Concerning Certainty and Uncertainty 213 Prevision and Probability 594 Conditional Prevision and Probability 1135 The Evaluation of Probabilities 1536 Distributions 1877 A Preliminary Survey 2518 Random Processes with Independent Increments 3119 An Introduction to Other Types of Stochastic Process 39310 Problems in Higher Dimensions 40111 Inductive Reasoning; Statistical Inference 42112 Mathematical Statistics 447Appendix 475Index 571