Strategies to the Prediction, Mitigation and Management of Product Obsolescence

Supply chains for electronic products are primarily driven by consumer electronics. Every year new mobile phones, computers and gaming consoles are introduced, driving the continued applicability of Moore's law. The semiconductor manufacturing industry is highly dynamic and releases new, better and cheaper products day by day. But what happens to long-field life products like airplanes or ships, which need the same components for decades? How do electronic and also non-electronic systems that need to be manufactured and supported of decades manage to continue operation using parts that were available for a few years at most? This book attempts to answer these questions. This is the only book on the market that covers obsolescence forecasting methodologies, including forecasting tactics for hardware and software that enable cost-effective proactive product life-cycle management. This book describes how to implement a comprehensive obsolescence management system within diverse companies. Strategies to the Prediction, Mitigation and Management of Product Obsolescence is a must-have work for all professionals in product/project management, sustainment engineering and purchasing.

Supply chains for electronic products are primarily driven byconsumer electronics. Every year new mobile phones, computers andgaming consoles are introduced, driving the continued applicabilityof Moore's law. The semiconductor manufacturing industry is highlydynamic and releases new, better and cheaper products day by day.But what happens to long-field life products like airplanes orships, which need the same components for decades? How doelectronic and also non-electronic systems that need to bemanufactured and supported of decades manage to continue operationusing parts that were available for a few years at most? This bookattempts to answer these questions.This is the only book on the market thatcovers obsolescence forecastingmethodologies, including forecasting tactics for hardwareand software that enable cost-effective proactive productlife-cycle management. This book describes how to implement acomprehensive obsolescence management system within diversecompanies. Strategies to the Prediction, Mitigation andManagement of Product Obsolescence is a must-have work for allprofessionals in product/project management, sustainmentengineering and purchasing.

Preface xiii1 Introduction to Obsolescence Problems 11.1 Definition of Obsolescence 11.2 Categorization of Obsolescence Types 31.3 Definition of Obsolescence Management 41.4 Categorization of Obsolescence Management Approaches 51.5 Historical Perspective on Obsolescence 61.6 Occurrence of Obsolescence 81.7 Product Sectors Affected by Obsolescence Problems 111.8 Parts Affected by Obsolescence Problems 132 Part Change and Discontinuation Management 172.1 The Change Process 182.2 Change-Control Policies of Major Part Manufacturers 182.3 Change-Notification Policies of Major Companies 192.4 Change-Notification 242.5 Change-Notification Paths 272.6 Examples of Common Changes 293 Introduction to Electronic Part Product Life Cycles333.1 Product Life Cycle Stages 343.2 Special Cases of the Product Life Cycle Curve 393.3 Product Life Cycle Stages as a Basis for Forecasting 404 Obsolescence Forecasting Methodologies 414.1 Obsolescence Forecasting--Parts with EvolutionaryParametric Drivers 424.2 Obsolescence Forecasting--Parts without EvolutionaryParametric Drivers 564.3 Non-Database Obsolescence Forecasting Methodology 705 Case Study Hardware Forecasts and Trends 775.1 Dynamic RAMs (DRAMs) 775.2 Static Random Access Memories (SRAMs) 845.3 Non-Volatile Memories 945.4 Microprocessors 1055.5 Microcontrollers and Digital Signal Processors (DSPs)1155.6 Logic Parts 1205.7 Analog Parts 1295.8 Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) 1366 Software Obsolescence 1436.1 The Root Causes of Software Obsolescence 1456.2 Software Obsolescence Mechanisms 1466.3 Discussion 1557 Reactive Obsolescence Management 1577.1 Change and Discontinuance Notifications 1587.2 Obsolescence Recovery (Mitigation) Tactics 1607.3 Selecting the Proper Reactive Obsolescence ManagementStrategy 1867.4 Reactive Obsolescence Management Checklist 1887.5 Reactive Obsolescence Management Guideline 1888 Proactive Obsolescence Management 1938.1 Members of the Proactive Obsolescence Management Board1948.2 Schedule and Milestones 1948.3 Initial Obsolescence Risk Analysis 1958.4 Tracking Parts' Availability 1978.5 Product Obsolescence and Aftersales 1979 Strategic Obsolescence Management 1999.1 Applying Project Management Principles to ObsolescenceManagement 2009.2 Initiation Stage 2029.3 Planning and Design Stage 2059.4 Execution Stage 2109.5 Monitoring and Controlling Stage 2259.6 Strategic Obsolescence Management Guidelines 22910 Obsolescence Management Standards and Organizations23310.1 Helpful Standards for Obsolescence Management 23310.2 Helpful Organizations for Obsolescence Management 237References 245Index 267