Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them)

Praise for the Second Edition "e;All statistics students and teachers will find in this book a friendly and intelligentguide to . . . applied statistics in practice."e; Journal of Applied Statistics "e;. . . a very engaging and valuable book for all who use statistics in any setting."e; CHOICE "e;. . . a concise guide to the basics of statistics, replete with examples . . . a valuablereference for more advanced statisticians as well."e; MAA Reviews Now in its Third Edition, the highly readable Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them) continues to serve as a thorough and straightforward discussion of basic statistical methods, presentations, approaches, and modeling techniques. Further enriched with new examples and counterexamples from the latest research as well as added coverage of relevant topics, this new edition of the benchmark book addresses popular mistakes often made in data collection and provides an indispensable guide to accurate statistical analysis and reporting. The authors' emphasis on careful practice, combined with a focus on the development of solutions, reveals the true value of statistics when applied correctly in any area of research. The Third Edition has been considerably expanded and revised to include: A new chapter on data quality assessment A new chapter on correlated data An expanded chapter on data analysis covering categorical and ordinal data, continuous measurements, and time-to-event data, including sections on factorial and crossover designs Revamped exercises with a stronger emphasis on solutions An extended chapter on report preparation New sections on factor analysis as well as Poisson and negative binomial regression Providing valuable, up-to-date information in the same user-friendly format as its predecessor, Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them), Third Edition is an excellent book for students and professionals in industry, government, medicine, and the social sciences.

Praise for the Second Edition"All statistics students and teachers will find in this book afriendly and intelligentguide to . . . applied statistics inpractice."Journal of Applied Statistics". . . a very engaging and valuable book for all who usestatistics in any setting."CHOICE". . . a concise guide to the basics of statistics, replete withexamples . . . a valuablereference for more advanced statisticiansas well."MAA ReviewsNow in its Third Edition, the highly readable CommonErrors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them) continues to serveas a thorough and straightforward discussion of basic statisticalmethods, presentations, approaches, and modeling techniques.Further enriched with new examples and counterexamples from thelatest research as well as added coverage of relevant topics, thisnew edition of the benchmark book addresses popular mistakes oftenmade in data collection and provides an indispensable guide toaccurate statistical analysis and reporting. The authors' emphasison careful practice, combined with a focus on the development ofsolutions, reveals the true value of statistics when appliedcorrectly in any area of research.The Third Edition has been considerably expanded andrevised to include:* A new chapter on data quality assessment* A new chapter on correlated data* An expanded chapter on data analysis covering categorical andordinal data, continuous measurements, and time-to-event dataincluding sections on factorial and crossover designs* Revamped exercises with a stronger emphasis on solutions* An extended chapter on report preparation* New sections on factor analysis as well as Poisson and negativebinomial regressionProviding valuable, up-to-date information in the sameuser-friendly format as its predecessor, Common Errors inStatistics (and How to Avoid Them), Third Edition is anexcellent book for students and professionals in industrygovernment, medicine, and the social sciences.

PREFACE xiPART I FOUNDATIONS 11 Sources of Error 3Prescription, 4Fundamental Concepts, 5Ad Hoc, Post Hoc Hypotheses, 7To Learn More, 112 Hypotheses: The Why of Your Research 13Prescription, 13What is a Hypothesis?, 14Found Data, 16Null Hypothesis, 16Neyman-Pearson Theory, 17Deduction and Induction, 21Losses, 22Decisions, 23To Learn More, 253 Collecting Data 27Preparation, 27Response Variables, 28Determining Sample Size, 32Sequential Sampling, 36One-Tail or Two?, 37Fundamental Assumptions, 40Experimental Design, 41Four Guidelines, 43Are Experiments Really Necessary?, 46To Learn More, 47PART II STATISTICAL ANALYSIS 494 Data Quality Assessment 51Objectives, 52Review the Sampling Design, 52Data Review, 53The Four-Plot, 55To Learn More, 555 Estimation 57Prevention, 57Desirable and Not-So-Desirable Estimators, 57Interval Estimates, 61Improved Results, 65Summary, 66To Learn More, 666 Testing Hypotheses: Choosing a Test Statistic 67First Steps, 68Test Assumptions, 70Binomial Trials, 71Categorical Data, 72Time-to-Event Data (Survival Analysis), 73Comparing the Means of Two Sets of Measurements, 76Comparing Variances, 85Comparing the Means of k Samples, 89Subjective Data, 91Independence Versus Correlation, 91Higher-Order Experimental Designs, 92Inferior Tests, 96Multiple Tests, 97Before You Draw Conclusions, 97Summary, 99To Learn More, 997 Miscellaneous Statistical Procedures 101Bootstrap, 102Bayesian Methodology, 103Meta-Analysis, 110Permutation Tests, 112To Learn More, 113PART III REPORTS 1158 Reporting Your Results 117Fundamentals, 117Descriptive Statistics, 122Standard Error, 127p-Values, 130Confidence Intervals, 131Recognizing and Reporting Biases, 133Reporting Power, 135Drawing Conclusions, 135Summary, 136To Learn More, 1369 Interpreting Reports 139With a Grain of Salt, 139The Analysis, 141Rates and Percentages, 145Interpreting Computer Printouts, 146To Learn More, 14610 Graphics 149The Soccer Data, 150Five Rules for Avoiding Bad Graphics, 150One Rule for Correct Usage of Three-Dimensional Graphics, 159The Misunderstood and Maligned Pie Chart, 161Two Rules for Effective Display of Subgroup Information, 162Two Rules for Text Elements in Graphics, 166Multidimensional Displays, 167Choosing Graphical Displays, 170Summary, 172To Learn More, 172PART IV BUILDING A MODEL 17511 Univariate Regression 177Model Selection, 178Stratification, 183Estimating Coefficients, 185Further Considerations, 187Summary, 191To Learn More, 19212 Alternate Methods of Regression 193Linear Versus Non-Linear Regression, 194Least Absolute Deviation Regression, 194Errors-in-Variables Regression, 196Quantile Regression, 199The Ecological Fallacy, 201Nonsense Regression, 202Summary, 202To Learn More, 20313 Multivariable Regression 205Caveats, 205Correcting for Confounding Variables, 207Keep It Simple, 207Dynamic Models, 208Factor Analysis, 208Reporting Your Results, 209A Conjecture, 211Decision Trees, 211Building a Successful Model, 214To Learn More, 21514 Modeling Correlated Data 217Common Sources of Error, 218Panel Data, 218Fixed- and Random-Effects Models, 219Population-Averaged GEEs, 219Quick Reference for Popular Panel Estimators, 221To Learn More, 22315 Validation 225Objectives, 225Methods of Validation, 226Measures of Predictive Success, 229Long-Term Stability, 231To Learn More, 231GLOSSARY, GROUPED BY RELATED BUT DISTINCT TERMS 233BIBLIOGRAPHY 237AUTHOR INDEX 259SUBJECT INDEX 267