The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes

JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES (1883-1946) was a British economist best known for his theories of Keynesian economics on protracted unemployment. He also wrote General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936), The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1919), and The End of Laissez-Faire (1926).

A landmark text on the logical foundations of probability. The essence of Keynes's approach remains important among philosophers today.

Part I. Fundamental Ideas: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Probability in relation to the theory of knowledge; 3. The measurement of probabilities; 4. The principle of indifference; 5. Other methods of determining probabilities; 6. The weight of arguments; 7. Historical retrospect; 8. The frequency theory of probability; 9. The constructive theory of Part I summarised; Part II. Fundamental Theories: 10. Introductory; 11. The theory of groups, with special inference, and logical priority; 12. The definitions and axioms of inference and probability; 13. The fundamental theorems of necessary inference; 14. The fundamental theorems of probable inference; 15. Numerical measurement and approximation of probabilities; 16. Observations on the theorems of Chapter 14 and their developments including testimony; 17. Some problems in inverse probability, including averages; Part III. Induction and Analogy: 18. Introduction; 19. The nature of argument by analogy; 20. The value of multiplication of instances, or pure induction; 21. The nature of inductive argument continued; 22. The justification of these methods; 23. Some historical notes on induction notes on Part III; Part IV. Some Philosophical Applications of Probability: 24. The meanings of objective chance, and of randomness; 25. Some problems arising out of the discussion of chance; 26. The application of probability to conduct; Part V. The Foundations of Statistical Inference: 27. The nature of statistical inference; 28. The law of great numbers; 29. The use of a priori probabilities for the prediction of statistical frequency - the theorems of Bernoulli, Poisson, and Tchebycheff; 30. The mathematical use of statistical frequencies for the determination of probability a posteriori - the methods of Laplace; 31. The inversion of Bernoulli's theorem; 32. The inductive use of statistical frequencies for the determination of probability a posteriori - the methods of Lexis; 33. Outline of a constructive theory.