A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
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Beschreibung:
A classic of science, this famous essay by "the Newton of France" introduces lay readers to the concepts and uses of probability theory. It is of especial interest today as an application of mathematical techniques to problems in social and biological sciences.
Generally recognized as the founder of the modern phase of probability theory, Laplace here applies the principles and general results of his theory "to the most important questions of life, which are, in effect, for the most part, problems in probability." Thus, without the use of higher mathematics, he demonstrates the application of probability to games of chance, physics, reliability. of witnesses, astronomy, insurance, democratic government and many other areas.
General readers will find it an exhilarating experience to follow Laplace's nontechnical application of mathematical techniques to the appraisal, solution and/or prediction of the outcome of many types of problems. Skilled mathematicians, too, will enjoy and benefit from seeing how one of the immortals of science expressed so many complex ideas in such simple terms.
CHAPTER I. Introduction
CHAPTER II. Concerning Probability
CHAPTER III. General Principles of the Calculus of Probabilities
CHAPTER IV. Concerning Hope
CHAPTER V. Analytical Methods of the Calculus of Probabilities
PART II APPLICATION OF THE CALCULUS OF PROBABILITIES
CHAPTER VI. Games of Chance
CHAPTER VII. Concerning the Unknown Inequalities which may Exist among Chances Supposed to be Equal
CHAPTER VIII. Concerning the Laws of Probability which result from the Indefinite Multiplication of Events
CHAPTER IX. Application of the Calculus of Probabilities to Natural Philsophy
CHAPTER X. Application of the Calculus of Probabilities to the Moral Sciences
CHAPTER XI. Concerning the Probability of Testimonies
CHAPTER XII. Concerning the Selections and Decisions of Assemblies
CHAPTER XIII. Concerning the Probability of the Judgments of Tribunals
"CHAPTER XIV. Concerning Tables of Mortality, and the Mean Durations of Life, Marriage, and Some Associations"
CHAPTER XV. Concerning the Benefits of Institutions which Depend upon the Probability of Events
CHAPTER XVI. Concerning Illusions in the Estimation of Probabilities
CHAPTER XVII. Concerning the Various Means of Approaching Certainty
CHAPTER XVIII. Historical Notice of the Calculus of Probabilities to 1816