Dynamic Modeling of Diseases and Pests

Bruce Hannon is Jubilee professor of the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences and is associated with the departments of Geography, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine and Bioengineering and the National Center for Super Computing Applications and the Illinois Natural History Survey.

Matthias Ruth is Roy F. Weston Chair in Natural Economics, founding Director of the Center for Integrative Environmental Research at the Division of Research, Director of the Environmental Policy Program at the School of Public Policy, and founding Co-Director of the Engineering and Public Policy Program at the University of Maryland.

The ease of use of the programs in the application to ever more complex cases of disease and pestilence. The lack of need on the part of the student or modelers of mathematics beyond algebra and the lack of need of any prior computer programming experience. The surprising insights that can be gained from initially simple systems models.

This book introduces students to hands-on dynamic modeling in the context of disease, and challenges them to use their models and insights to explore interventions that may help restrain contagion.

Introduces students to hands-on dynamic modeling in the context of disease, and challenges them to use their models and insights to explore interventions that may help restrain contagion

Part I: Introduction1. The Why and How of Dynamic Modeling1.1. Introduction1.2. Static, Comparative-Static and Dynamic Models1.3. Model Complexity and Explanatory Power1.4. Model Components1.5. Modeling in STELLA1.6. Analogy and Creativity1.7. STELLA's Numeric Solution Techniques1.8. Sources of Model Errors1.9. The Detailed Modeling Process1.10. Questions and Tasks2. Theory and Concepts2.1. Basic Epidemic Model2.2. Basic Epidemic Model with Randomness2.3. Loss of Immunity2.4. Two-population Epidemic Model2.5. Epidemic with Vaccination2.6. Questions and Tasks3. Insect Dynamics3.1. Matching Experiments and Models of Insect Life Cycles3.2. Optimal Insect Switching3.3. Two Age Class Parasite Model3.4. Questions and TasksPart II: Applications4. Malaria and Sickle Cell Anemia4.1. Malaria4.1.1. Basic Malaria Model4.1.2. Questions and Tasks4.2. Sickle Cell Anemia and Malaria in Balance4.2.1. Sickle Cell Anemia4.2.2. Questions and Tasks5. Encephalitis5.1. St. Louis Encephalitis5.2. Questions and Tasks6. Chagas Disease6.1. Chagas Disease Spread and Control Strategies6.2. Questions and Tasks7. Lyme Disease7.1. Lyme Disease Model7.2. Questions and Tasks8. Chicken Pox and Shingles8.1. Model Assumptions and Structure8.2. Questions and Tasks9. Toxoplasmosis9.1. Introduction9.2. Model Construction9.3. Results9.4. Questions and Tasks10. The Zebra Mussel11. Biological Control of Pestilence11.1. Herbivory and Algae11.1.1. Herbivore-Algae Predator-Prey Model11.1.2. Questions and Tasks11.2. Bluegill Population Management11.2.1. BluegillDynamics11.2.2. Impacts of Fishing11.2.3. Impacts of Disease11.2.4. Questions and Tasks11.3. Woolly Adelgid11.3.1. Infestation of Fraser Fir11.3.2. Adelgid and Fir Dynamics11.3.3. Questions and Tasks12. Western Corn Rootworm Population Dynamics and Coevolution12.1. Western Corn Rootworm12.2. Model Development12.3. Questions and Tasks13. Chaos and Pestilence13.1. Basic Disease Model with Chaos13.1.1. Model Setup13.1.2. Detecting and Interpreting Chaos13.1.3. Questions and Tasks13.2. Chaos with Nicholson-Bailey Equations13.2.1. Host-Parasitoid Interactions13.2.2. Questions and Tasks14. Catastrophe and Pestilence14.1. Basic Catastrophe Model14.2. Spruce Budworm Catastrophe14.3. Questions and Tasks15. Spatial Dynamics of Pestilence15.1. Diseased and Healthy Migrating Insects15.1.1. Introduction15.1.2. Model Design15.1.3. Results15.1.4. Questions and Tasks15.2. The Spatial Dynamic Spread of Rabies in Foxes15.2.1. Introduction15.2.2. Fox Rabies in Illinois15.2.3. Previous Fox Rabies Models15.2.4. The Rabies Virus15.2.5. Fox Biology15.2.6. Model Design15.2.7. Cellular Model15.2.8. Model Assumptions15.2.9. Georeferencing the Modeling Process15.2.10. Spatial Characteristics15.2.11. Model Constraints15.2.12. Model Results15.2.13. Rabies Pressure15.2.14. The Effects of Disease Alone15.2.15. Hunting Pressure15.2.16. Controlling the DiseasePart III: Conclusions16. Conclusions