Twilight in the Desert

Twilight in the Desert reveals a Saudi oil and production industry that could soon approach a serious, irreversible decline. In this exhaustively researched book, veteran oil industry analyst Matthew Simmons draws on his three-plus decades of insider experience and more than 200 independently produced reports about Saudi petroleum resources and production operations. He uncovers a story about Saudi Arabias troubled oil industry, not to mention its political and societal instability, which differs sharply from the globally accepted Saudi version. Its a story that is provocative and disturbing, based on undeniable facts, but until now never told in its entirety. Twilight in the Desert answers all readers questions about Saudi oil and production industries with keen examination instead of unsubstantiated posturing, and takes its place as one of the most important books of this still-young century.

Twilight in the Desert reveals a Saudi oil and production industry that could soon approach a serious, irreversible decline. In this exhaustively researched book, veteran oil industry analyst Matthew Simmons draws on his three-plus decades of insider experience and more than 200 independently produced reports about Saudi petroleum resources and production operations. He uncovers a story about Saudi Arabia's troubled oil industry, not to mention its political and societal instability, which differs sharply from the globally accepted Saudi version. It's a story that is provocative and disturbing, based on undeniable facts, but until now never told in its entirety. Twilight in the Desert answers all readers' questions about Saudi oil and production industries with keen examination instead of unsubstantiated posturing, and takes its place as one of the most important books of this still-young century.

Illustrations ixPreface xiiiAcknowledgments xxiPART ONE FROM BEDOUIN TO BOURGEOISIE 11 The Birth of a Nation 52 The History of Major Saudi Arabian Oil Discoveries 233 Saudi Arabia's Road to Oil Market Dominance 434 The Veil of Secrecy over Saudi Oil Reserves and Production 69PART TWO THE EBBING OF THE SAUDI OIL BOUNTY 995 Saudi Aramco 1016 Oil Is Not Just Another Commodity 129PART THREE GIANTS AT THE TIPPING POINT 1497 Ghawar, the King of Oilfields 1518 The Second-Tier Oilfields 1819 The Best of the Rest 19910 Coming Up Empty in New Exploration 23111 Turning to Natural Gas 245PART FOUR TWILIGHT IN THE DESERT 26112 Saudi Oil Reserves Claims in Doubt 26513 Facing the Inevitable 28114 Reading Between the Lines of the Latest News from Aramco 30915 Aramco Invokes "Fuzzy Logic" to Manage the Future of Saudi Oil 32516 In Search of Crisper Truths among the Confident Saudi Claims 33317 Aftermath 341Appendix A Methodology 355Appendix B Supporting Technical Data 365Appendix C The 1974 and 1979 Senate Hearings 377Notes 385Bibliography 391Index 409