Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management

An updated and timely new look at the theory and practice of risk management Since the first edition of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management was published, public interest in the field of risk analysis has grown astronomically. Its adaptation across many disciplines and its deployment by industry and government agencies in decision making has led to an unprecedented development of new theory, methodology, and practical tools. The Second Edition of this well-regarded reference describes the state of the art of risk management and its important applications in such areas as engineering, science, manufacturing, business, management, and public policy. The author strikes a balance between the quantitative and the qualitative aspects of risk management, showing clearly how to quantify risk and construct probability in conjunction with real-world decision-making problems. At the same time, he addresses a host of institutional, organizational, political, and cultural considerations. Incorporating real-world examples and case studies to illustrate the analytical methods under discussion, the book presents basic concepts as well as advanced material, avoiding higher mathematics whenever possible. Some key revisions to the Second Edition include: * A completely updated format with many new examples and problems * A new chapter on Risks of Terrorism, including case studies in transportation, water supply, infrastructure interdependencies, food safety, and a National Research Council report on terrorism * A new chapter on Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management (RFRM), a technology co-developed by the author and supported by several case studies and examples * A new focus on minimizing the high cost associated with today's more extensive risk management Examining timely, multidisciplinary practical applications, this new edition offers an important resource for industry professionals as well as advanced graduate students in systems engineering.

An updated and timely new look at the theory and practice of riskmanagementSince the first edition of Risk Modeling, Assessment, andManagement was published, public interest in the field of riskanalysis has grown astronomically. Its adaptation across manydisciplines and its deployment by industry and government agenciesin decision making has led to an unprecedented development of newtheory, methodology, and practical tools.The Second Edition of this well-regarded reference describes thestate of the art of risk management and its important applicationsin such areas as engineering, science, manufacturing, businessmanagement, and public policy. The author strikes a balance betweenthe quantitative and the qualitative aspects of risk managementshowing clearly how to quantify risk and construct probability inconjunction with real-world decision-making problems. At the sametime, he addresses a host of institutional, organizationalpolitical, and cultural considerations. Incorporating real-worldexamples and case studies to illustrate the analytical methodsunder discussion, the book presents basic concepts as well asadvanced material, avoiding higher mathematics wheneverpossible.Some key revisions to the Second Edition include:* A completely updated format with many new examples andproblems* A new chapter on Risks of Terrorism, including case studies intransportation, water supply, infrastructure interdependenciesfood safety, and a National Research Council report onterrorism* A new chapter on Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management (RFRM)a technology co-developed by the author and supported by severalcase studies and examples* A new focus on minimizing the high cost associated with today'smore extensive risk managementExamining timely, multidisciplinary practical applications, thisnew edition offers an important resource for industry professionalsas well as advanced graduate students in systems engineering.

Preface.Acknowledgments.PART I: FUNDAMENTALS OF RISK MODELING, ASSESSMENT, ANDMANAGEMENT.1. The Art and Science of Systems and Risk Analysis.2. The Role of Modeling in the Risk Analysis Process.3. Identifying Risk Through Hierarchical HolographicModeling.4. Decision Analysis.5. Multiobjective Trade-Off Analysis.6. Defining Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis.7. Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management.PART II: ADVANCES IN RISK MODELING, ASSESSMENT, ANDMANAGEMENT.8. Risk of Extreme Events and the Fallacy of Expected Value.9. Multiobjective Decision-Tree Analysis.10. Multiobjective Risk Impact Analysis Method.11. Statistics of Extremes: Extension of the PMRM.12. Bayesian Analysis and the Prediction of ChemicalCarcinogenicity.13. Fault Trees.14. Multiobjective Statistical Method.15. Principles and Guidelines for Project Risk Management.16. Applying Risk Analysis to Space Missions.17. Risk Modeling, Assess ment, and Management of Terrorism.18. Case Studies.Appendix: Optimization Techniques.Index.